Redistricting is having a major effect on the upcoming election, with politicians picking the voters instead of voters picking the politicians. So how did this become the new normal, and is there anything we can actually do to stop it?
Redistricting is how states divide the maps that decide what voting district citizens fall into. Whoever controls the lines has the advantage in elections. You want to include as much of your base as possible while cutting the other voters out. Elections aren't won by the national vote they're won one district at a time. If your base is spread evenly across ten districts, you might lose all ten by a few points each. But if you redraw the lines to pack your voters into six districts where they're the majority, you win those six even if the other side turns out in full force. The same amount of people doing the same amount of voting. The trick is to lock in wins before a single vote is cast. Done right, it can guarantee seats for years.
Republicans tend to want older white voters, people in rural areas and evangelicals. While Democrats lean more towards cities, younger voters and Black and Latino communities. Independents are the Wild Card, if they're not leaning the right way they tend to get put where they can do the least harm
Redistricting itself has been going on for years and is an important part of the electoral process. Demographics shift. Cities grow and shrink with rural areas getting more and less rural. Redistricting is necessary to keep things balanced. Normally this is done once every 10 years in line with new census data.
Normally.
We passed normal about six exits back. For those playing along at home here's how it went.
in June 2025 The Trump administration started leaning on Texas Republicans to redraw their congressional map. The worry was that losing the House in 2026 would derail Trump's agenda and open the door to investigations.
July 9th 2025 Texas governor Greg Abbott called a special session of the Texas Legislature. He had received a letter from the DOJ claiming four minority voting districts were unconstitutional citing a recent 5th Circuit ruling that had gutted the ability of minority groups to band together to challenge voting maps.
July 15 2025 Trump publicly told Texas Republicans to draw five new GOP seats. That same day, California Governor Gavin Newsom fired back on Twitter with "two can play this game"
August 3 2025 Texas House Democrats use the only tool they could to attempt to stop the redistricting. Breaking quorum by fleeing the state. Abbott just kept calling special session after special session. Eventually the Democrats returned and the map passed.
August 11, 2025 California governor Gavin Newsom sends Trump a letter threatening that California would begin redistricting unless other states called off theirs. Two days later, Newsom announced the deadline had passed and California would begin its own mid decade redistricting.
August 21, 2025 A redistricting amendment is voted onto the November ballot, California has a independent commission that can only be bypassed by voter approval. this was written as a temporary, one-time exception. the new maps would be used through the 2030 elections, then business as usual after the 2030 Census.
August 29, 2025 Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe (R) released a proposed map that would net Republicans one U.S. House seat, targeting Kansas City Democrat Emanuel Cleaver. It was passed and signed into law on September 28, 2025.
October 21-22, 2025 North Carolina Republicans pass a new congressional map aimed at flipping Don Davis's seat. netting one more GOP seat.
October 31, 2025 The Ohio Redistricting Commission voted unanimously to approve a new congressional map. the prior map was set to expire under a state constitutional amendment.
October 23-24, 2025 Virginia Democrats announced plans for a state constitutional amendment to allow mid decade redistricting. In Virginia a state constitutional amendment needs to be approved with two consecutive legislative sessions, and a general election in between. Then it's put on the ballot.
October 27, 2025 The Virginia General Assembly adopted a procedural resolution to consider a constitutional amendment for redistricting. they did this by reconvening an already-open special session rather than calling a new one.
October 29, 2025 Virginia House passes the amendment on a party-line vote.Virginia Senate passes it days later.
November 4, 2025 California voters approved Proposition 50. Five California GOP seats now in play for Democrats.
November 18, 2025 A federal panel ruled 2-1 to block Texas from using the new 2025 map. ordering them back to the 2021 map. calling it an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.
November 21, 2025 The U.S. Supreme Court temporarily paused the ruling, reinstating the new Texas map while it goes over the case.
December 4, 2025 The Supreme Court ruled that Texas could use the 2025 map in the 2026 elections.
December 8-11, 2025 Indiana Republicans, after several visits from VP Vance, try to push through a new map. On December 11, the proposal was rejected in the State Senate after opposition from 21 Republicans and all 10 Democrats.
January 14-16 2026 Virginia House passes the amendment for the second required time. The Senate also passes the amendment putting it on the ballot.
January 27, 2026 A state judge blocked the amendment, ruling it had violated the special session's procedural rules in October 2025. According to procedural resolution, "no bill, joint bills, joint resolutions, or resolutions affecting the rules of procedure or schedule of business of the General Assembly" could be added to the agenda except with unanimous approval. As Republicans had voted against it, the judge granted preliminary and permanent injunctions.
February 4, 2026 The Supreme Court denied an appeal of the California map ruling. California's gerrymander is locked in.
February 13, 2026 The Virginia Supreme Court allows the referendum to proceed, saying it'll hear the constitutional arguments after the vote
April 21, 2026 Virginia voters approved the amendment. Approving the new electoral map
May 8, 2026 The Supreme Court of Virginia struck down the voter-approved redistricting amendment upholding the lower court ruling. they found the amendment was flawed because early voting was already in effect while the amendment was being approved. Virginia's constitution requires "an intervening general election" between the legislature's first and second approvals of a constitutional amendment
This is where we are up till now. It's best to consider this a living document until the election.
the institutional norm was that you only redrew the maps once a decade after the census. That's gone now. If we have to do this on hard mode that's what we'll do. Despite all the rejiggering and litigation the real power goes to the people who show up
